IMF expects global public debt to exceed $100 Trillione

The global total public debt is set to exceed USD 100 trillion this year for the first time, and may grow more quickly than forecast as political sentiment favors higher spending and slow growth amplifies borrowing needs and costs, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report showed global public debt will reach 93 percent of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024. It would also be up 10 percentage points from 2019.
Released a week before the IMF and World Bank hold annual meetings in Washington, the Fiscal Monitor said there are good reasons to believe future debt levels could be well higher than currently projected, including a desire to spend more in the US, the world’s largest economy.

Debt could be further increased significantly by weak growth, tighter financing conditions, and greater fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty in systemically important economies such as the US and China, the report said.

The report includes a “severely adverse scenario” involving these factors that shows global public debt could reach 115 percent in just three years, 20 percentage points higher than currently projected.
The report attributes this scenario to the fact that current high debt levels reinforce the impact of tighter financial conditions and higher spreads, as well as the impact of declining growth on future debt levels.