EU braces for potential shifts in transatlantic relations ahead of US presidential election

BRUSSELS — The European Union is ramping up preparations for the impending US presidential election on November 5, with a focus on defense and security implications, according to senior EU officials.

Anticipating changes that could redefine EU-US relations, the European Commission has reportedly set up a “rapid reaction force” to prepare for possible outcomes, though the initiative remains officially unnamed.

“We are indeed preparing for the US elections, considering all potential outcomes,” confirmed Commission spokeswoman Arianna Podesta. The EU, she emphasized, is committed to preserving a close, bipartisan partnership with the US.

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to office has raised concerns among EU leaders, recalling the strained relationship of his previous term.

Trump’s prior statements about reducing defense commitments to NATO if allies fail to meet financial obligations have sparked renewed discussions around European strategic autonomy.

Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, noted Trump’s impatience with NATO policies and his preference for a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Transatlantic expert Luigi Scazzieri from the Centre for European Reform added that Trump’s approach could strain EU unity, describing it as “pressuring” for the bloc’s security dependence on the US.

Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris is viewed by analysts as a continuation of Biden-era policies, particularly in terms of NATO relations.

“Harris values alliances and European allies, so NATO would be safe,” remarked Scazzieri. However, protectionist trade measures are expected to remain under Harris, posing ongoing challenges for EU-US trade relations.

With potential shifts looming, the EU has advanced its own defense industry initiatives, including appointing its first defense commissioner, underscoring efforts toward greater security autonomy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s team is reviewing scenarios under either US administration outcome.

“The EU is not prepared for Trump,” Scazzieri stated, adding that the Commission has drafted retaliatory tariff lists but sees limited options for adapting to Trump’s potential policies on security, leaving Brussels largely in a “wait and see” stance.

With both candidates poised for Tuesday’s election, the EU is preparing for a new phase in transatlantic relations that may require strategic adjustments. As internal divisions on migration and foreign policy continue to challenge EU cohesion, the US election outcome could set a new course for EU diplomacy and defense policies. — Agencies